Research

Research notes

Notes on valuations, market cycles, and investor behaviour, built from published data. Every figure is traced to its source, and nothing here recommends a scheme.

Valuations

15 August 2026Is 20× earnings cheap? The fair-multiple arithmeticThe Nifty's trailing P/E is near 20×. At 15% ROE and 10–12% earnings growth, textbook arithmetic puts the fair multiple at 16.5–18×. The index now sits between fair and average.
15 August 2026The Nifty below 3× book: same price, better balance sheetNifty's price-to-book fell below 3× for the first time since December 2020, but today's 2.95× comes with a 14.5% implied ROE against 11.8% then.
15 August 2026The SMID premium problemSmall and midcaps trade at a median 38× trailing earnings against a 20× long-run average, and at a 27% forward-P/E premium to large caps versus a 5% historical norm.

Macro & cycles

15 August 2026A benign bear: 103 days under the 200-DMA without a 20% fallThe Nifty has spent 103 trading days below its 200-day moving average, a top-10 consolidation by length, yet never fell 20% from its peak. The index has corrected sideways instead of down.
15 August 2026India's consumption is at a cyclical troughPrivate consumption has averaged 10.4% growth since FY18, the slowest stretch in a series going back to FY67. Six decades of data read it as a cycle at its trough.
15 August 2026Corporate India is cycle-ready, and waiting on demandNSE 500 ROE stands at 15% against a 22% prior peak. Margins have recovered; asset turns and leverage haven't. Balance sheets are the cleanest in the series. The constraint is demand visibility.

Global markets

15 August 2026AI capex, measured against every boom before itAI-related investment is running at 2.4–2.7% of US GDP, past the telecom and shale peaks and 40% of the railroad mania. Every $1 of it needs roughly $4 of end-user spending to pay off.
15 August 2026Tech is 41% of world markets. India's tech weight halved.Technology's share of global market cap now exceeds the dot-com peak, while the Nifty 50's technology weight has fallen from ~19% to 7.4%. The dichotomy cuts both ways.

Investor behaviour

15 August 2026Margin buying is at a record: ₹1.95 lakh crore and countingStocks bought on leverage (MTF plus loans against shares) have grown eleven-fold in six years, to 0.41% of total market cap, the highest on record.
15 August 2026The SIP evidence: 16 markets, 30 yearsAcross 16 equity markets over 30 years, systematic investing held up in markets where lumpsum investing lost real money. India's numbers lead the study.